August 17th, 2015
New Polling Company Currently Predicts Corbyn Win
Corbyn is still in the lead, but has slipped a bit. So says a wisdom of the crowd survey of 500 UK adults:
The above four surveys, done on Friday/Saturday over the past four weeks, have been carried out on X-MR's behalf by Google Consumer Surveys and will be repeated in coming weeks until the results are published in September. Next weeks poll will see if Gordon Brown's intervention has had any influence.
Last October, X-MR decided to investigate whether an alternative polling method might be a way of predicting the results of the recent Election. They published the prediction that David Cameron would emerge as Prime Minister on May 6th . This is supported by some 30 surveys they did on the subject every week since early October-2014. They are now undertaking a similar project on possible outcomes of the Labour leadership ballot.
The “Wisdom of the crowd” methodology has a long pedigree, it was first mentioned in writing by Aristotle in Ancient Greece and can be an alternative to traditional representative samples for certain kinds of tracking. The general premise of wisdom of the crowd is that the average from a large number of people is more accurate than the individual.
The Google platform, available in the UK, USA & Germany, using a self-selecting sampling systems, can be helpful in tracking opinion and can be much less costly than a more traditional approach. X-MR have done over 50 surveys since last October using Google in this way.
X-MR are currently tracking the EU referendum result. Please contact us at [email protected] if you would like further information on:
Who is going be the next Labour leader?
Will we remain in the EU?
Historical surveys on the last Election and other subjects.
If there is a question you would like answered, either one off or continuously, contact us. We may well be able to help at relatively modest cost or even do a trial for you speculatively.
10 The Orchard
London W4 1JX
020 8994 2360
For further information:
Geoffrey Roughton at [email protected]
(020 8994 2360)
Notes for the editor
WISDOM OF THE CROWD
This BBC video demonstrates 'wisdom of the crowd'. They asked 160 people to guess the number of sweets in a jar, which contained 4510 jellybeans. Answers varied wildly from just 400 to 50,000. However when all the amounts were added up as a total and divided by 160, the average guess was 4515. Just 5 more than the correct amount. Video here
A TedX talk, in Brighton, UK, about 'wisdom of the crowd'. Video here
Geoffrey is a graduate in Engineering and English Literature from Trinity College, Cambridge. He is a Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society and a Fellow of the Market Research Society. His career in market research began in 1955. He went on to found MAS Survey Research Ltd in 1957 (later absorbed into TNS). His company became the first market research company in Europe to have is own computer (an IBM 1130). Subsequently he become Chairman and CEO of Pulse Train Ltd who merged with Confirmit AS in 2007. He remains active in the UK MR community.
His main job now is serving X-MR as its Chief Executive Officer (CEO).
Iain has a guru status in the worldwide market research software fraternity. A Cambridge graduate who was in one of the earliest courses on Computer Science under Professor Maurice Wilkes (inventor of symbolic labels, macros, and subroutine libraries). Iain joined Alan Hendrickson on the formation of Pulse Train becoming its first Technical Director. He designed and authored much of the code for their flagship products Bellview and Star. He remains resident at the leading edge of modern software technology.
He serves X-MR as Chief Technical Officer (CTO).